The closing of HMV's doors this week sent a chill blast down Irish high streets. If a company worth €1.2bn a few years ago can fail, what hope is there for the rest?
People used to lament that the small, quirky shops in our city centres were being replaced by large retail chains. Now it seems the chains themselves could be in trouble.
Some retailers believe the days of shopping in a bricks-and-mortar shop such as HMV are over anyway. Like the LP and loose-leaf tea, it'll become a niche activity for enthusiasts.
It will be replaced by online shopping, an area which saw phenomenal growth this Christmas. In the UK, for instance, trading overall was up 1.2pc, but online shopping grew by 17.8pc.
Figures for Ireland are more difficult to find. The CSO doesn't record online sales in its Monthly Retail Sales Index. But the UPC Report on Ireland's Digital Future published last year shows Irish people are beginning to prefer "clicks" to "bricks" as well.
It found that online shopping in Ireland was worth €3.7bn in 2012 and will grow to €5.7bn by 2016, by which time it will account for some 7pc of all retail spending.
Currently, 2.6 million Irish people do some shopping online, a figure that will increase as internet use grows and broadband infrastructure improves. But does that mean the end of high street shopping?
"In the future, online retailing will be part of the offer," says Stephen Lynam, director of Retail Ireland, the retail arm of IBEC. "But bricks-and-mortar retailers are still part of the picture."
He cites the trend of 'show-rooming' – the idea that shops would become mere showrooms for internet shoppers. People would touch and examine the goods there, and then go home and buy online.
"Now we're seeing the opposite," he says. "People research online and then go to a shop to get some expert advice and make the purchase."
Professor Zorica Nedovic-Budic, head of school at UCD's Geography, Planning and Environmental Policy Department agrees that "there is certainly no indication that the high street is going away yet".
She points out that 10 years ago, planners and academics thought that soon there would be no libraries or shops, everything would move to online and territory would become irrelevant. "But it's not coming true," she says.
Some retail sectors are impervious to the growth in online shopping anyway, Stephen Lynam points out. Tiger, the Danish homeware brand, has no online sales operation (in fact its website says "this is not a webstore" at the top) but has seen 55pc growth in the UK and now has two stores in Ireland.
And Brown Thomas has no e-tail operation (its website is more of a showroom), yet still manages to thrive on its bricks-and-mortar business.
Department stores – along with the DIY sector – seem largely immune to the online threat. "You might think department stores have an old-fashioned Are You Being Served air about them," says Stephen, "but they have had a very good Christmas."
Nigel Blow, the chief executive of Arnotts, says they have seen a "modest" increase this Christmas, including a huge increase in their online sales of 69pc on last year.
"People have been predicting the death of the high street for decades. I think there is definitely a place for bricks-and-mortar retailing – I certainly hope so, as we have a very big building here," he laughs.
"People still like to come in and try things on. They like the whole experience of coming into the store," he says, adding that it's crucial to have an online offering as well.
"Shopping is a leisure activity," says Fiona McHugh, co-owner of Fallon & Byrne in Dublin's Exchequer Street. "Being a successful independent food store comes back to the personal touch. People buy food with their eyes – it's a sensory thing."
Most retailers agree that to succeed you have to have an online presence, but you need to offer the shopper a pleasant physical experience when they come in to your shop.
"It's crucial to have an online presence and then to invest heavily in the actual store," says Stephen Lynam.
"No retailer can afford not to invest in things such as lighting and flooring etc. Those kind of things could be seen as a luxury in a recession, but they're actually a necessity."
Fiona McHugh agrees. "The building, the staff, the atmosphere in the shop – these are major parts of our identity. It's often down to intangibles. You have to consider the whole experience . . . everything from lighting to music, even the shop temperature."
"The whole feel and ambience is important," adds Nigel Blow.
"People's experience from the moment they walk in the door determines whether they will come back."
The social side of shopping is also important, reckons Gib Cassidy, who runs cult record shop Elastic Witch, part of the Twisted Pepper venue on Dublin's Middle Abbey Street.
"One of the things I had in mind was to create a space where people could come and meet friends and chat about music and gigs," he says, "and if they buy something, so much the better."
Gib makes 90pc of his turnover from sales of vinyl records, but doesn't expect to pick up much business if HMV was to close for good. His success has been to create something which lures people out from behind their computers and into a welcoming and social retail space.
The idea of creating a community around your business is something many retailers mention. "We want to have shared discussions about food with our customers, to promote a sense of community," says Fiona McHugh.
It's also something independent Irish book store Dubray Books works hard on. "We foster relationships with book clubs and see ourselves as part of a community," says Lynn Crampton, manager of their Grafton St branch.
Dubray Books sells online, but the vast majority of its sales come from in-store shopping. It tries to provide expert advice to customers, especially in the area of children's books.
"When we're hiring, we look for book readers and book lovers. We want people who can give a genuine recommendation to our customers."
The idea that people want expert advice from a well-trained staff member in an actual, physical shop still has plenty of traction.
In Arnotts, they took a gamble on expanding their electronics section and found to their surprise that it worked: people still wanted to talk to someone at a retailer they trusted before buying a TV or audio equipment, says Nigel Blow.
The real threat to high street retailing may not come from the internet, but from an older and more physical rival – the out-of-town shopping centre, reckons Prof Nedovic-Budic. "This is a major factor – more of a threat than online shopping," she says.
Another factor may be the new Amazon smartphone app Price Check, which allows you to scan a barcode in any shop and compare it then and there to the Amazon price.
Most retailers suggest that HMV's troubles are not due to internet shopping, but to a change in music and video downloading technology that made their business model unsustainable.
Yes, people will buy food, clothes and white goods online, but they will also continue to buy them in shops, they say, because we're not only consumers, we're social beings too.
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