Links 14 Jan: Has Peak PC Come And Gone Already? - Forbes

We're all aware of the ideas of peak oil: and some will know of peak copper, peak fertiliser and there's even some who proclaim peak water. I tend to rather rubbish those ideas on economic grounds. However, there's another type of peak possible: when the demand for a manufactured product starts to fall away. And it's entirely possible that we're just about there with "Peak PC".

Have a look at these numbers from Gartner:

As you can see global PC shipments have fallen with respect to the same quarter last year. And we can't blame recession for this: things are better in the global economy this year than last.

PC shipments are still heading the wrong way down the gadget freeway, according to Gartner, who thinks that we're now consuming media mostly on tablets and just flitting over to the PC for grunt work. The survey outfit theorized that a single shared computer can often suffice for a family, with individuals getting their own tablet instead of a laptop or desktop for personal stuff — especially with compelling, inexpensive new entries like the Nexus 7.

We used to think that as the world developed then everyone would end up getting their own PC. That idea now seems to be waning as people are indeed all getting their own phones but a smartphone allows us to do much of what we would have done on a PC. Sure, not the typing out a long document but we can share a PC when we need to do that. It's no longer a personal must have possession at a certain income or technological level.

"Tablets have dramatically changed the device landscape for PCs, not so much by 'cannibalizing' PC sales, but by causing PC users to shift consumption to tablets rather than replacing older PCs," said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner.

"Whereas as once we imagined a world in which individual users would have both a PC and a tablet as personal devices, we increasingly suspect that most individuals will shift consumption activity to a personal tablet, and perform creative and administrative tasks on a shared PC."

I've said often enough that I can imagine smartphones being advanced enough ("real soon now", of course) to satisfy my computing needs in a year or two. In fact, in computer hardware terms they already are and I certainly don't think I'm alone in that. I can imagine the PC returning to what it once was, something that only power users required. The "personal computer" becoming something akin to a phone with a docking station.

Take my own computing use: email and browsing, of course. Phones and or tablets already can handle that. Above that I do a little light word processing and some spreadsheets. And that really is about it. As and when there's an Open Office for Android (just to take an example) I could well imagine my never using a PC again, let alone buying one. And as I say, I really don't think I'm alone in this sort of usage.

It's even possible to offer up a design in a way. Take something in the Galaxy Note size and format. Add a hardware keyboard like a Sony Experia. VGA and USB (maybe Bluetooth) outlets so that an external monitor and full size keyboard can be added. And if there's that Open Office (or LibreOffice, just something with that functionality) for Android, or whatever operating system that "phone" is running, then I would be catered to.

And the thing is, I can see those devices being offered soon enough. So it's is possible that this fall in PC shipments isn't just a blip, we really might be at peak PC.