Obama's promises - fulfilled and broken - San Francisco Chronicle

Candidate Barack Obama promised a lot along his historic route to the White House four years ago - 508 promises to be exact, according to the nonpartisan fact-checkers at Politifact.com who tracked the fate of each.

He fulfilled or reached compromise on 73 percent of what he promised, according to Politifact. As Obama begins his second term Monday, his legacy will also be shaped by the broken promises of his first four years in the White House.

He didn't overhaul the nation's immigration system. He didn't close Guantanamo Bay. He didn't "turn the page on the ugly partisanship in Washington, so we can bring Democrats and Republicans together." His pledge to change bankruptcy laws to help more people stay in their homes fizzled.

Still, Obama's success rate on promises is "right in line with other presidents," said Politifact editor Bill Adair, based on conversations with presidential scholars. "Presidents tend to make realistic promises in most cases."

Not too realistic was Obama's pledge to change the tone of Washington. It's worse now than when his predecessor, President George W. Bush, promised to be a "uniter, not a divider." Going back to President Truman, only Bush began his second term with a lower approval ratings (50 percent) than Obama's (52 percent) according to a January Pew Research poll.

"He's always talked a better game than he's delivered," said Morris Fiorina, a senior fellow at the conservative Hoover Institution in Palo Alto and co-author of "Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America." Obama "didn't act enough like a leader" on his civility pledge and other issues. And with an entrenched Republican-controlled House at odds with him on most issues, "it's too late" on this issue, Fiorina added.

Obama's successes were helped by a Democratic-controlled House and Senate in his first two years in Washington. But after the GOP took the House in the 2010 midterm elections - in part because of reaction to passage of the health care reform law - they opposed him at every turn. With Republicans still in control of the House, that is unlikely to change in his second term, analysts say.

5 broken promises

Immigration: In August 2008, Obama told Univision: "I can guarantee that we will have in the first year an immigration bill that I strongly support and that I'm promoting." He did not fulfill what became known as "la promesa de Obama" to many Latino voters.

Obama regained some stature among Latinos when he signed an executive order in June that would defer deportation for young people who entered the United States illegally as children if they met certain requirements. Still, if his GOP challenger Mitt Romney hadn't held such a hard line on immigration policy, Obama's failed "promesa" could have cost him the election if more Latinos had stayed home instead of voting.

"He probably could have done (immigration reform) in his first two years when he had a Democratic Congress, but he chose to concentrate on health care," said Robert Smith, a San Francisco State political science professor, author of the soon-to-be-released "John F. Kennedy, Barack Obama, and the Politics of Ethnic Incorporation and Avoidance."

Cap-and-trade: In a 2007 speech in New Hampshire, Obama promised to set a "hard cap on all emissions at a level that scientists say is necessary to curb global warming." Led by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the House passed cap-and-trade legislation, but Senate Leader Harry Reid did not put it to a vote, saying in June 2010 that he didn't have enough votes in the Democrat-controlled Senate. Obama didn't make it a priority to convince them, analysts said.

Guantanamo Bay: Obama promised to close the prison camp in Cuba where many terrorism-related detainees are being kept. It remains open, housing 166 prisoners.

Smith, among others, said Obama is not entirely to blame. The House has passed a measure prohibiting spending any money on any prison in the United States to house Guantanamo prisoners.

"Obama tried, but Congress wouldn't let him," Smith said.

Housing help: Obama, who was elected weeks after the financial markets crashed and accelerated the home foreclosure crisis, promised to "change the bankruptcy laws to make it easier for families to stay in their homes." Obama set aside $75 billion for a foreclosure-prevention program funded out of the Troubled Asset Relief Program. But instead of lifting up 9 million homeowners as designed, the program helped only 500,000 people get permanent home-loan modifications. The inspector general for the TARP program, Neil Barofsky, called it "a colossal failure."

Medical marijuana: In 2007, Obama said in New Hampshire that he "would not have the Justice Department prosecuting and raiding medical marijuana users. It's not a good use of our resources." A 2009 Justice Department memo seemed to confirm as much. But since October 2011, federal prosecutors in California have begun cracking down on medical pot dispensaries in the state's $1.5 billion medical weed industry. There has been little pushback or explanation from the White House.

5 promises kept or compromised

Health care reform: The Affordable Care Act didn't include universal care or a public option that many liberals would have liked, nor the cost containment that others wanted. But Smith said the law will be remembered as the kind of landmark social policy achievement on par with the creation of the Social Security system or Medicare.

Osama bin Laden slain: During an October 2008 presidential debate, Obama said: "If we have Osama bin Laden in our sights and the Pakistani government is unable or unwilling to take them out, then I think that we have to act, and we will take them out. We will kill bin Laden." Mission accomplished in 2011.

But part of Obama's statement was that "we will crush al Qaeda." That is a little tougher to call because there are many organizations related to or inspired by al Qaeda. But as the director of the federal National Counterterrorism Center testified before the Senate in September: "The intelligence picture shows that al Qaeda's core is a shadow of its former self and the overall threat from al Qaeda in Pakistan is diminished."

Gay and lesbian issues: In a campaign note to gay and lesbian supporters in February 2008, Obama said: "I have also called for us to repeal 'don't ask, don't tell,' " the policy barring openly gay, lesbian or bisexual people from serving in the military. In 2011, the policy was repealed with his encouragement. Obama also fulfilled his promise not to defend the federal Defense of Marriage Act, which defines marriage as between a man and woman. It remains law as the Supreme Court prepares to hear the case.

Iraq war: Obama promised that he would have combat troops out of Iraq "about 16 months" after he took office. He was a couple of months late.

Bush tax cuts: Count this in the compromise column. Candidate Obama in 2008 promised to repeal the Bush-era tax cuts for families making more than $250,000. After the "fiscal cliff" negotiations last year, he cut a deal. Instead, taxes would rise on families making more than $450,000.

Joe Garofoli is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. E-mail: jgarofoli@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @joegarofoli