Concern grows Israel may attack Iran soon - San Francisco Chronicle

Jerusalem --

For the first time in nearly two decades of escalating tensions over Iran's nuclear program, world leaders are genuinely concerned that an Israeli military attack on the Islamic Republic could be imminent - an action that many fear might trigger a wider war, terrorism and global economic havoc.

High-level foreign dignitaries, including the U.N. chief and the head of the American military, have stopped in Israel in recent weeks, urging leaders to give the diplomatic process more time to work. But U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has reportedly concluded that an Israeli attack on Iran is likely in the coming months.

Despite harsh economic sanctions and international pressure, Iran is refusing to abandon its nuclear program, which it insists is purely civilian, and threatening Israel and the West.

It's beginning to cause jitters in world capitals and financial markets.

Is Israel bluffing? Israeli leaders have been claiming Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons since the early 1990s, and defense officials have issued a series of ever-changing estimates on how close Iran is to the bomb. But the saber-rattling has become much more direct and vocal.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu frequently draws parallels between modern-day Iran and Nazi Germany on the eve of the Holocaust.

On Thursday, Defense Minister Ehud Barak claimed during a high-profile security conference that there is a "wide global understanding" that military action may be needed.

Israel views Iran as a mortal threat, citing Iranian calls for Israel's destruction, Iran's support for anti-Israel militant groups and Iranian missile technology capable of hitting Israel.

Many in the region cannot believe Israel would attack without a green light from the United States, its most important ally. That sense is deepened by the heightened stakes of a U.S. election year and the feeling that if Israel acts alone, the West would not escape unscathed.

The United States has been trying to push both sides, leading the charge for international sanctions while also pressing Israel to give the sanctions more time.

"I don't think that Israel has made a decision on what they need to do," President Obama said Sunday in an interview with NBC. He reiterated that the United States has removed no option from consideration in dealing with Iran - an allusion to military intervention - but emphasized that the United States wants a diplomatic solution.

Why is the issue coming to a head with such unfortunate timing, with the U.S. election looming and the global economy hanging by a razor's edge?

The urgency is fueled by a belief in Israel that Iran is moving centrifuges and key installations deep underground by the summer - combined with doubts about whether either Israel or the United States have the bunker-busting capacity to act effectively thereafter.

This article appeared on page A - 2 of the San Francisco Chronicle