Police and crime commissioner elections begin - The Guardian

David Cameron faces one of the biggest electoral tests of his premiership on Thursday when voters go to the polls to elect 41 new police and crime commissioners in England and Wales.

In what is likely to be a challenging day for the Tories, three byelections are also being held, notably in the bellweather seat of Corby after the resignation of the novelist Louise Mensch.

The Tories are expected to struggle to retain Corby which is invariably won by the victorious national party at general elections. Mensch captured the seat from Labour at the last election with a majority of 1,951.

Downing Street is likely to dismiss a Labour victory in Corby as a classic example of a government's mid term blues.

But there may be questions about whether the Tories are a disciplined electoral force after the MP running the party's byelection supported a rival candidate who is opposed to onshore wind farms.

Theresa May said that Chris Heaton-Harris was "guilty of some silly bragging" after he said that the possibility of a rival candidacy had hardened Tory opposition to wind farms. James Delingpole, the Telegraph columnist, decided not to stand when the new energy minister John Hayes signalled a government change of heart on wind farms.

The elections for the 41 new police and crime commissioners will be a battle between Labour and the Tories and a handful of independent candidates. The Liberal Democrats, who forced the elections to be delayed from the spring to the middle of November, are saying in private that they do not expect to have much of a presence of any of Thursday's elections.

Sam Chapman, of the TopOfTheCops.com website, estimates that Labour could pick up 19 of the new posts, with the Tories taking 14. Chapman says the other eight contests are too tight to call.

But the greatest challenge for Downing Street, which has staked its authority on the directly elected police commissioners, may be low turnout. The latest polls showed that turnout may be between 25-30%. This is around the level of turnout in some local elections. But Labour, which regards the PCCs as a poor use of stretched resources, will use a low turnout to say that the government has failed to win support for a flagship policy.

The elections may see the return of former ministers to high profile office. Lord Prescott is standing to become the PCC in Humberside. The former solicitor general Vera Baird is standing in Northumbria. Michael Mates, the former Tory Northern Ireland minister, is standing in Hampshire.

In addition to Corby, byelections are also being held in Cardiff South and Penarth and in Manchester Central. These were caused by the decision of their respective Labour MPs - Alun Michael and Tony Lloyd - to stand in the PCC elections.