This is David Cameron's second annual conference as Prime Minister. He must be feeling confident and looking forward to a city-break in Manchester with a few thousand of his best friends.
David Cameron does confidence the way a millipede does legs. Seasoned political observers say they have never seen a PM so at ease when working a room, but even this most comfortable public performer might feel the flutter of butterflies in his innards when he looks ahead to his conference speech.
How so?
The global economy is lurching daily like a break-dancing camel, English cities have been rocked by riots, public sector workers are either terrified of losing their jobs or preparing to fight against the cuts, and more than a handful of MPs are starting to wonder what life would be like without those pesky Lib Dems at the cabinet table.
Lib Dem president Tim Farron was dreaming of full-on "divorce" from the Conservatives when he took to his conference stage a couple of weeks ago. Can we expect the Tories to be making jokes about their coalition partners' predilection for sandals and beards this week?
It's unlikely we'll hear much mention of the Lib Dems at all from the stage. Nick Clegg's party could boast of holding back the plans of the Tory right but it's unlikely the Conservatives will crow about torpedoing the top Lib Dem policy goal.
What was that?
The commitment to hold a referendum on the Alternative Vote was a key part of the coalition deal but Conservative big beasts clubbed the idea to death and put electoral reform off the agenda for the foreseeable future.
If the referendum had been won and Britain had an electoral system which made it a lot harder for the Conservatives to win a majority this conference would be a lot tougher for Mr Cameron. But now that AV is dead, Tories are free to daydream about putting Mr Clegg and his colleagues back on the opposition benches.
Really?
Five thrusting Conservative MPs have written a book with the unsubtle title After the Coalition. They are aware that the last time their party managed to win an election outright was 1992 – the same year that Simply Red had the best-selling album with Stars.
In their wobbly moments they must fear the chances of a Tory PM winning the keys of power without a Lib Dem sidekick are as unlikely as Mick Hucknall selling a billion records in 2015.
The MPs acknowledge it was essential to compromise and go into power with the Lib Dems to tackle the deficit, but they believe they have Conservative solutions to modern British problems.
But the PM can still be guaranteed a standing ovation when he appears in front of the conference, can't he?
Absolutely. Conservative conference-goers are legendary for the pleasure they take in applauding. But Mr Cameron will need to give them reasons to keep clapping. In good times, being in government means you get to write cheques for your favourite projects. Want to build a giant dome to celebrate the dawn of the new millennium? No problem!
But the Treasury coffers are so empty there's not even anything to interest a moth. And if the President of the United States cannot single-handedly solve the international economic crisis, the British prime minister certainly can't.
What can he do?
He needs to convince his audience – in the hall and the millions who will watch snippets on television – that not only is he the best person to steer the UK through this storm but he can also see light on the horizon. Economists point out that pension funds and companies are sitting on cash reserves because they lack the confidence to invest. Mr Cameron needs to restore their faith in UK Plc.
But didn't business secretary Vince Cable recently give the most downbeat economic assessment in living memory, warning that the days of inevitably rising living standards may have come to an end and lamenting the lack of "sunny uplands"?
Yes, it's interesting to imagine the facial expression Mr Cameron must have pulled as he listened to his Lib Dem cabinet colleague's speech.
Can we expect the Conservative leader to hug a hoodie live on stage?
He's at pains to point out he didn't actually use that phrase, but he will need to spell out a vision of community renewal in a riot-scarred country at a time when cash is scarce. Around 30,000 protesters could be on the streets of Manchester today to make their anger about the cuts clear to ministers, and there is the prospect of coordinated strike action in the coming months.
Mr Cameron's instincts may be to champion the idea of a "big society" and a more compassionate, liberal Conservatism, but he could be pulled into one of the sharpest confrontations between government and trade unions since the most fraught days of the Thatcher era.
So have we said goodbye to cuddly Conservatives?
Actually, no. So-called Red Tories have renounced the aggressive individualism of the Thatcher revolution and want to challenge Labour as the party best able to deal with poverty. The party will also have a "social action zone" in which conference-goers can read a short story that will go into an audio library for the visually impaired.
Meanwhile, Labour is positioning itself as the party of law and order.
Yes, the Police Federation used last week's Labour conference to denounce the cuts to forces in the most fiery language in the dictionary. And members of the Tory right this week may ask why the international development budget is being protected but policing is not.
Is David Cameron haunted by the possibility he could be the last prime minister of the United Kingdom if the SNP's Alex Salmond has his way with a referendum on independence?
As his surname suggests, the PM has Scottish roots and he has vowed to defend the union with "every fibre" of his being. But the party's desire to keep the UK together is tempered with a frustration that Scotland is doing rather too well thanks to the benevolence of the British taxpayer.
The authors of After the Coalition argue the "net annual subsidy" to Scotland has risen from £4bn to £10bn since the start of devolution. They write: "In 2009-10, for example, £800 less was spent per person in the North West of England, and around £500 per person less in Wales and the North East."
They support devolving financial powers to Scotland but in return want an annual payment for "national services" ranging from diplomacy to defence and an end to Scottish MPs voting on non-Scottish matters. Such proposals might encourage a good few Scots to ask why they should stay in the UK.
While there seems little prospect of a Scottish-style rise in support for independence in Wales, a commission is on the way which is expected to look at the issue of who should be allowed to vote on England- only legislation.
Mr Cameron does not come across as a man who is obsessed with constitutional questions but these dilemmas keep bubbling to the surface.
Does he think much about Wales?
He knew the 2010 election would be a desperate scramble for a majority in which every seat would count and – as Labour Shadow Welsh Secretary Peter Hain pointed out last week – parties in government generally do worse at each successive election. The revival of Conservative fortunes in Wales, a land which returned no Tory MPs in 1997 and 2001 but sent eight to Westminster last year, is therefore of strategic importance.
Well, at least Libya looks like a clear-cut victory.
It would be a coup if Gadaffi is finally captured during the conference. At the very least, so long as mutinous generals don't kick up too much of a fuss about defence cuts, pictures of Mr Cameron in a liberated Libya will get the faithful on to their feet.
As would a vow to scrap the 50p tax and replace the Human Rights Act with a British Bill of Rights.
But then the PM and his colleagues would have to spend the next few days trying to peel their Lib Dem cabinet colleagues off the ceiling. The city may be known as Madchester, but senior Tories will have to stay on their best behaviour.
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