|
In three Elections, the Tories never defeated Tony Blair. But George Osborne did get one over on the former Prime Minister in Davos last week.
Osborne told him to stop complaining about the decision to offer a vote on our EU membership. After all, the Chancellor reminded Blair, it was he who set the ball rolling by promising a referendum on the EU Constitution, a promise he wiggled out of.
There is delight among senior Conservatives at how David Cameron's long-awaited speech on Europe went down with the party and country.
One idea of how to deter migrants is a campaign focusing on the downsides of British life, such as the countrys inclement weather
But another issue is rapidly moving up the agenda: the rights granted to Romanians and Bulgarians to move here from December. This could threaten Cameron's hopes of re-election.
One of those involved in discussions about how to handle it tells me: 'Every single thing we've done on immigration risks being blown out of the water by this.'
No?10 is keen to limit the impact of the change. One aide says: 'We're really kicking the bureaucracy on this.' But he also complains that Government lawyers are very cautious about what can be done.
Work is under way to make it tougher for EU migrants to access public services. One plan is to deport those who move here just to use the welfare state – anyone not in work after three months would have to leave.
There is delight among senior Conservatives about Camerons long-awaited speech on Europe
Another option would require people arriving from Romania and Bulgaria to show that they have the means to support themselves for six months.
The Government is even considering a public information campaign in the two countries to persuade citizens that Britain is not for them – or, as one Minister puts it, to 'correct the impression that the streets here are paved with gold'.
The plan, bizarre as it seems, would focus on the downsides of British life, such as the country's inclement weather.
But will this be enough? One Downing Street source points to the continuing rise in employment even in a stagnant economy. 'If you're looking for work, why wouldn't you come to the UK?' says one.
Despite Britain being on the verge of entering a triple-dip recession, the private sector is still creating jobs. This makes Britain attractive, especially compared with Spain, where the unemployment rate is 26 per cent, and France, where the jobless total has risen every month for more than 18 months.
This has led some to advocate an even more dramatic move: the declaration of an economic emergency and the delay of Romanian and Bulgarians' new rights. Without this, they warn, '2014 will be a year of disaster'.
The immigration issue was second only to the economy in explaining why people went from Labour to the Tories between 1997 and 2010. As one Tory campaign planner notes: 'Bettering Labour on immigration is one of the best cards we have to play.'
But handle it wrong and that card could be snatched right out of Cameron's hand. Ed Miliband will have Labour taking a tough line on the issue, proposing laws to bar recruitment agencies from hiring Romanians and Bulgarians and excluding British workers.
However, most Whitehall insiders think that declaring an economic emergency and postponing the right of free movement is impossible. One Home Office source says: 'The legal advice is clear that we could not do that.'
A senior Treasury figure describes the economic emergency idea as 'far-fetched.' Others worry about the message it would send 18 months before a General Election.
But if Cameron does not do this, it is hard to see how he will be able to go into that poll claiming he has got immigration under control. He would have forfeited one of his trump cards.
Hague's special date with Hilary
There's only one place to be in Washington DC tomorrow night – William Hague's farewell dinner for Hillary Clinton. The Foreign Secretary has invited the cream of the US national security establishment to mark the retirement of his opposite number. There will be a family flavour to the event too – Ffion Hague and Bill Clinton are both expected to attend.
Hillary Clinton and William Hague have both gone from loathed politician to respected elder statesman
Hague and Hillary, pictured above, are surprisingly similar figures. They've both run for the top job and not got it, before finding a new lease of life. They've also experienced the rough and the smooth of public opinion, going from loathed politician to respected elder statesman.
It is an indication of the personal rapport between the two of them that Hague is the only one of Clinton's international colleagues to be throwing her a leaving party. But tomorrow night, many of the guests will be wondering if he'll be hosting another dinner in four years to mark her inauguration as US President.
Can the deputy Prime Minister pass his own test?
A few weeks ago two dads discussed how annoying it is that there is no universal charger for all their children's electronic devices. Why isn't there one thing to charge everything from a Nintendo DS to a mobile phone?
But this wasn't any old conversation – it was a chat between Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and radio talk-show host Nick Ferrari, broadcast to the nation. Clegg knows that if he is to lead his party into the next Election he must charm the electorate.
To that end, he's on what an adviser calls 'Operation Engage', doing every bit of media he can and taking every chance to meet voters. There will be no more cowering inside Whitehall. He has visited six Lib Dem constituencies already this month and will go to all 57 this year.
But too many voters are a lost cause, so Clegg is concentrating solely on the 'Lib Dem market' – the 20 to 25 per cent of the electorate that polls show might seriously consider backing them.
Clegg also wants to make his party more professional. I understand 110 policy proposals have been poll-tested and that nothing will make it into the manifesto without going through this process.
But the question is: Can the Deputy Prime Minister pass the test himself?
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario