Prime minister's gambit - Boston Herald

It's hard to believe that British Prime Minister David Cameron would take his country out of the European Union, a tariff-free market of 500 million people for British businesses. He says he wants to stay in. The referendum on membership he plans is likely a two-cushion shot, a hammer to help negotiate easier membership terms while pacifying domestic anti-Europe sentiment.

The European Union, backed by Britain's companies, has become unpopular among voters. Membership is favored by only 45 percent. Opponents object to what they see as intrusive regulations ranging from the permissible size of bananas to permissible working hours, and including new regs on criminal procedure and immigration. A new anti-union party, the UK Independence Party, got 3 percent of the vote but no seats in the House of Commons in the 2010 elections. Polls show it doing better today.

Much would depend on the wording of the actual question put before the voters and how binding the result would be. On that Cameron has been silent. He wants a vote after the 2015 elections, which if he loses would mean no referendum at all. If Scotland votes for independence in a referendum that Scotland's ruling party hopes to hold in 2014, Cameron may feel less enthusiastic about a vote on Europe.

Some European Union VIPs have expressed dismay over Cameron's referendum proposal. Germany's foreign minister said in a recent speech, "A policy of cherry-picking will not work." But Britain has picked cherries before. Among other things, it does not use the common currency, the Euro. It kept passport controls on intra-union travel dropped by other members.

The most influential EU figure, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, says she is "prepared to talk about British wishes." New terms may be achievable after all.