viernes, 30 de noviembre de 2012

Liberal Democrats by-election result is 'worst ever by a major political party' - Telegraph.co.uk

"A combination of eighth place and barely two per cent of the vote in Rotherham is the worst single performance by a major party in any by election on record.

"In the Northern towns and cities the Lib Dems replaced the Tories two decades ago. They are now being replaced in those areas by a combination of minor parties and disinterest."

Labour won 46.25 per cent of the vote, while Ukip came second with 21.79 per cent, followed by BNP on 8.46 per cent and Respect on 8.34 per cent.

The Tories came fifth with 5.42 per cent, the English Democrats got 3.3 per cent of the vote, the Indepedent candidate received 2.73 per cent, while the Liberal Democrats won just 2.11 per cent of the vote.

The collapse of the Lib Dems' vote came as evidence strengthened that the party has lost its place as the political repository for the traditional protest vote to Ukip.

Ukip came second in Middlesbrough and Rotherham, and finished third in Croydon North. Labour won all three, while the Tories also did badly, being pushed into fifth place in Rotherham.

Mr Hayward, a former Tory MP, said the low turnout – fewer than three in 10 voters bothered to cast their ballot – aggravated the result for the Tories and the Lib Dems.

He said: "The very low turnouts in the by elections with bad results in particular for the Liberal Democrats reflect a growing anti establishment mood of the electorate.

"Even the Labour party cannot be over happy with a vote share in Rotherham which only barely increased on 2010."

Writing for telegraph.co.uk, Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes, said that the LibDems had "hit a brick wall" from which it was hard to see how they might recover.

He said: "Not only is their by-election performance risible, but their national vote share in opinion polls is hovering at around 10 per cent, or less than half what they achieved in the 2010 General Election.

"They are also faring worse than their Coalition partners in local government representation: Liberal Democrat councillor numbers peaked in 2008 and are now at their lowest tally than at any time in their 24-year history."

Mr Hawkins added that it was "hard to see how they can recover the support of voters who saw them as a palatable alternative to one of the two big parties. That honour is going increasingly to Ukip, for whom every by-election is now a test of momentum."

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, added that there were now real fears that the Lib Dems could be left with as few as 15 seats after the next general election, expected in 2015 if the party's vote share fell to 11 per cent.

Ukip's leader Nigel Farage said the strong showing was part of a trend, starting with coming third at the Corby by-election earlier this month.

Nigel Farage claimed that his party had finished a "very strong third" well in a string of recent elections because they were offering a "real alternative" to voters.

"What you can say over the last six months is that we have established ourselves, now, currently as the third force in British politics," he told BBC Radio 4's the World at One programme.

Asked if he could "really say that", he replied: "Well, we have beaten the Lib Dems in all forms of elections over the course of this year. That is where we are.

"We are clearly and consistently above the Lib Dems in the opinion polls. There is an upward trend. I think the UKIP message is resonating with voters and not just Tory voters either.

"There are plenty of voters, particularly in the North of England coming to us from Labour and the Lib Dems."

He said since 2010 there had been a "huge rise in our poll rating". He said the Conservatives were "paranoid" about his party and were failing to secure votes across the country.

Mr Farage went on to say that, although it could be described as a protest vote, he believed it was Ukip's policies that were connecting with people. if you want to call it a protest vote you can and I must say there is quite a lot to protest about.

"But actually what you find is the reason people are voting with Ukip is we're connecting with people – they agree with us.

"When we say 'the open door immigration from eastern Europe is irresponsible and causing unemployment at a time when we can least afford it and what we ought to do is return to a sensible work permit system', people vote for it.

"Is that a protest? Well, it might be … but it could be they're voting Ukip because they see us offering positive policy solutions."

Liberal Demoract party sources pointed out that while no other major party has ever come eighth in a by-election, Labour in the 1997 by-election in Winchester polled just 1.7 per cent - the lowest vote share of any major party in a by election.

Aides to Mr Clegg – who did not visit any of the battle grounds before polling day - shrugged off the bad result, insisting that the Lib Dems were suffering more because they were in Government and lacked the resources to fight the by-election properly.

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