The economy has been rocked over the past month by an unexpected contraction in output and surprisingly high inflation two shocks that spell misery for families and trouble for the Bank of England.
At first sight, economic weakness signals lower inflationary pressure that suggests there is no need for the Bank's monetary policy committee to consider raising interest rates from their historic low of 0.5 per cent. But high inflation risks raising expectations of price rises, becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy and threatening to undermine the credibility of the MPC in its task of controlling inflation.
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