DAN KEENAN, Northern News Editor in Cavan
Fianna Fáil is suffering from voter backlash in Cavan-Monaghan, in line with the rest of the state.
However, outgoing agriculture minister Brendan Smith has polled strongly in his native Cavan and is all but assured of retaining his Dáil seat at the completion of tallies.
Fine Gael is on course to pick up a second seat, although it was far from clear whether Heather Humphreys or Sean Conlan would be joining Senator Joe O'Reilly in the 31st Dáil.
Sinn Féin has polled strongly and Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin is on course to win election on the first count as he has done on the last three occasions. Sinn Féin party workers are particularly happy at the performance of his running partner Kathryn Reilly, a 22-year-old first-time candidate, who has polled well in Co Cavan.
This should complement Mr Ó Caoláin's strong base in neighbouring Co Monaghan.
Independents have not fared as noticeably as in previous Dáil elections, with all seven Independent candidates picking up between them just under 8 per cent on the first tally.
The big loser appears to be the outgoing Fianna Fáil TD Margaret Conlon, who won 6.67 per cent of first preferences, according to tallymen.
With the first count nearing completion, it seems probable that Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin will win one seat and that Fine Gael will win two. The destiny of the fifth and final seat is far from certain with a third Fine Gael candidate and Sinn Féin's Ms Reilly fighting it out.
Much will depend on transfers and the order in which other candidates are eliminated.
It could be that the votes of a defeated Fianna Fáil candidate could help push Sinn Féin into a second seat. Fine Gael is also hoping that favourable transfers from Independents, as well as some from Labour, will push it towards a third seat.
Turnout in Cavan-Monaghan is up and appears to be about 70 per cent.
Tallies indicate that some 70,379 votes were cast out of the electorate of 99,178, which could set the quota at approximately 11,731.
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