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Lib Dem Unity Test Lies Ahead

Updated: 8:48pm UK, Saturday 22 September 2012

By Joey Jones, Deputy Political Editor

When the Liberal Democrats entered into government, there was much talk about how the party was a potentially fragile and fractious coalition

On the right, we heard, was the "Orange Book" tendency exemplified by David Laws and Jeremy Browne, while Simon Hughes-style social democrats (populating much of the grassroots) were on the left.

Some suggested the party would dissolve into acrimony, and end up in splits and defections to the Tories or Labour, or both.

It might yet happen, but up until now, of the two coalition parties, the Liberal Democrats have been the more disciplined and resilient.

That is unlikely to change significantly at this mid-term party conference.

However, with the party bound to come under stress over the next few months, what we may begin to see are the seeds of future disagreement.

There are two key dynamics that are going to make life more difficult.

Firstly, it is all very well struggling under the burden of unpopularity and shoddy poll ratings in mid-term, but the closer we get to 2015 and the more Lib Dems will feel nervous if the polls do not turn.

Nick Clegg's own ratings, which are fairly catastrophic, will come under renewed scrutiny unless the party shows signs of progress; the leadership question is not live now among Lib Dem activists, but it could easily be a year from now.

The other thing that will make things testy is the development of policy. There is a dual timetable to consider. The spending review process of negotiation with the Tories is sure to be bloody.

Danny Alexander has indicated he is not wedded to George Osborne's plan to slash a further £10bn off welfare, but the pressing need to find cuts will strain the nerve of all Liberal Democrats.

One should not forget that £10bn was the figure after last year's autumn statement. Who knows how much further the government might need to cut once George Osborne sits down after his next big set piece in December? 

Beyond that, the party will need to shape its offering for the next election. Peter Kellner's brilliant dissection of the Liberal Democrat dilemma said that voters are confused about what the Lib Dems stand for, with left-wing voters seeing them as right-wing; and right-wing voters seeing them as left-wing.

One thing the party will desperately need to do is to demonstrate clearly and unequivocally what they represent. In order to do that, it is hard to see how a battle (or more likely a series of skirmishes) for the soul of the party can be avoided.

The Lib Dems in Brighton will present a generally united front, and will probably continue in the same vein for several months to come. Then that unity will be sorely tested.