It could be argued that Cameron's woes are just a normal case of mid-term blues. With Britain's economy still in recession, or near-recession, it's hardly surprising that the government is doing badly in the opinion polls. Although the opposition Labour Party has gained in the polls, many British voters still blame it for messing up the economy in the first place, and Labour's leader, Ed Miliband, has yet to establish broad support. That's all true enough. But in the life of any unsuccessful government, there comes a time when its problems begin to feed on themselves, and the public starts to doubt its basic competence and trustworthiness. That's the spot Cameron is occupying.
After two and a half years of budget cuts, even some Tories are quietly arguing for a change of course. Meanwhile, Cameron's pledge to legalize gay marriage, part of his effort to drag the Conservative Party into the twenty-first century on social issues, has sparked a full-scale rebellion by Tory activists in the shires—the famed "blue-rinse brigade." Then there is the long-running internal party dispute about Britain's role in Europe. For some years now, the U.K. Independence Party, a populist right-wing organization that wants Britain to withdraw from the European Union, has been growing in popularity and taking votes from the Conservatives. According to some polls, UKIP is now ahead of the Liberal Democrats, making it Britain's third-largest political party.
With Cameron in a pickle, Westminister is full of speculation about what he can do to win back the voters. Sadly for him, restaging the Olympics in London every year isn't an option. (Britain is still basking in the glory of its stellar performance at the Games.) Sacking George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and starting anew on the economy would be within the P.M.'s power, but he doesn't appear minded to do it. Instead, attention is focussing on Europe, and the possibility of staging a referendum on whether Britain should pull out of the twenty-seven member community—a move that would upend half a century of history.
By modern Tory standards, Cameron is a pro-European, but in recent months he has followed his party (and its Fleet Street allies) to the right. On Monday, he gave his strongest hint yet that he might be willing to countenance a withdrawal, saying, "Clearly all futures for Britain are imaginable. We are in charge of our own destiny, we can make our own choices." Reaffirming his government's official position, he added, "I believe the choice we should make is to stay in the European Union, to be members of the single market." However, the message had been sent: Britain's ties to the E.U. aren't inviolable.
At this stage, it isn't clear precisely what Cameron is up to. With Britain already requesting the repatriation of some powers from Brussels, he may be trying to build up his bargaining leverage with France and Germany, which oppose Britain's demands. But if that's his strategy, it isn't working. At a summit in the Belgian capital last week, François Hollande, the French President, smacked down Cameron's efforts to create a two-tier E.U., saying, "Europe is not a Europe where you can take back competences. It is not Europe a la carte."
Almost certainly, Cameron is playing domestic politics. Europe's economic problems have made the notion of a huge, multi-national economic union less attractive. Moreover, many ordinary Britons associate the E.U. with a big influx of immigration from Eastern Europe, which has sparked xenophobia and claims that foreigners are coming to Britain to obtain welfare benefits. With the poll in the Times showing that less than one in five Brits now has a positive view of Europe—hardly surprising in view of the continent's economic problems—the P.M. has said he will give a big speech in January on Britain's relationship with its continental partners. One possibility would be to announce a straight yes-or-no referendum next year on whether Britain should stay in the E.U. But with Europe currently so unpopular, there would be a real danger of the nos winning, which is not really what Cameron wants. At heart, he remains a pro-European. Moreover, the big businesses that finance the Conservative Party are virtually united in their desire for Britain to say inside the E.U. and its enormous market.
In view of this, Cameron will probably end up promising a referendum, but not until after the next election. That way, he could spend the next couple of years extracting whatever concessions he can from the French and Germans, then go to the country promising to let the voters decide the ultimate outcome. Such a strategy would create problems for Labour, which is much more pro-European than many of its supporters, and it would also help the Tories win back some supporters from the UKIP—or so Cameron would be hoping. Presumably, the thinking in Downing Street is that once the government had been reëlected on a platform of giving the public a chance to say damn to Europe and all its works, Cameron could do a quick about turn and campaign for a yes vote in the referendum.
Of course, such a strategy might now work. Once the anti-European forces inside and outside of the Conservative Party are unleashed, they could end up winning a referendum, and leaving Britain in a similar position, and with roughly the same clout in the world, as Norway. To American observers, it may seem a trifle reckless for the Prime Minister to play politics with Britain's relationship with its closest partner, and its future as part of one of the great trading blocs. But that is what Cameron has been reduced to.
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