ANALYSIS-Libya may face civil war as Gaddafi's grip loosens - Reuters Africa

* Gaddafi seen cornered, more bloodshed likely

* Few structures exist for orderly transition

* Tribes, Islamists, army, liberals seen vying for power

By Alistair Lyon, Special Correspondent

DUBAI, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Libya faces chaos and possible civil war as Muammar Gaddafi fights to maintain his 42-year grip on power in the face of a popular uprising.

Even if he flees -- assuming he could find a refuge -- Gaddafi would leave a nation with few normal structures for a peaceful transition, after four decades of his idiosyncratic rule.

"Any post-Gaddafi period is fraught with uncertainty," said Middle East analyst Philip McCrum. "There is no organised opposition, there are no civil institutions around which people could ordinarily gather.

"The opposition in exile is small and disparate. It will therefore take a long time for a new political order to establish itself and in the meantime, political tensions will run high as various competing groups, such as the tribes, the army, Islamists and liberals vie for power."   Continued...