Apple: iPhone, iPad Builds Trend Higher, Says Pac Crest - Barron's (blog)

By Tiernan Ray

Pacific Crest analyst Andy Hargreaves this morning offers some housekeeping on his numbers for Apple (AAPL) for the current quarter, the fiscal Q4 ending in September.

Hargreaves thinks there's potential upside for Apple's iPhone and iPad sales volume for the quarter, based on increasing component order volume by Apple.

Hargreaves writes that component orders for the iPhone suggest a build of 25 million units, up from a prior 20.7 million-unit estimate, across the 3GS, iPhone 4, and what he's calling the "iPhone 5," he writes. For the December quarter, Hargreaves thinks Apple may produce 28.7 million iPhones, including 20 million iPhone 5 units. Hargreaves continues to believe there will be just one new model of the iPhone introduced next, presumably this quarter.

For the iPad, component orders have risen from a pro 13.8 million-unit build to perhaps 14.8 million, he writes. That will probably be about the same in the December quarter, he writes, based on the initial data available from the supply chain.

Hargreaves adds that while it appears Apple may have built 10.9 million iPad units last quarter, probably actual sell-in to the distribution channel was below that, given "low manufacturing yields."

As for the Mac, Apple's orders of about 3.6 million for last quarter were higher than the 3.3 million he was modeling, whereas the 3 million-unit order trend for this quarter is below the 3.4 million he was modeling. He expects the higher number indicated by last quarter's data may make up the difference, allowing for higher Mac sales this quarter.

Apple shares today are up $4.49, or 1.3%, at $347.75.