"So the question now is just how bad a score are they going to get? There is a possibility that Conservatives here who don't think they have a chance of beating the Lib Dems could switch to us in the last week.
"If that does happen and if the Tories get a derisory vote then I think it's very serious indeed for [Mr Cameron]."
Asked whether people will start asking questions about Mr Cameron's leadership if the Tories do not win the by-election Mr Farage said: "Yes. I think the mutterings are there already. When you get away from metropolitan London… and you go out to the strong Tory bits of this constituency you meet traditional Conservative voters who say, 'Actually our party used to believe in patriotism and national democracy and supporting business and free enterprise, and now we support wind turbines and gay marriage'.
"They don't recognise David Cameron to be a Conservative. They seem to have become so disconnected from their traditional base that it really is a crisis moment."
Mr Farage predicted that Mr Cameron will come under increasing pressure in the months leading up to the Conservative Party conference in the autumn.
"It could be a long, hot summer for the Conservative Party," he said.
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