By Michael Comeau
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — In all likelihood, social-networking giant Facebook is going to file for an initial public offering in the very near future, as soon as Wednesday, if Wall Street Journal reports are to be believed.
Now we've all been hearing rumors and reading reports about a Facebook IPO for the longest time, so normally, I wouldn't get excited about this "news."
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However, last week, trading of private Facebook shares on secondary markets was frozen. And at the 2012 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg commented directly on the idea of going public by saying, "If this is seen as an opportunity for jobs and for people to use their work to change the world, that's what we want to be a part of."
The language in this psuedo-sales pitch is reminiscent of Google Inc.'s /quotes/zigman/93888/quotes/nls/goog GOOG +0.42% "Don't Be Evil" mantra, which it incidentally referenced in its 2004 Founders' IPO Letter:
"Don't be evil. We believe strongly that in the long term, we will be better served -- as shareholders and in all other ways -- by a company that does good things for the world even if we forgo some short-term gains. This is an important aspect of our culture and is broadly shared within the company."
The Google IPO defined the last bull market, at least in technology. It was a mega-deal from the most important tech company of the day, and it's made people a lot of money.
Google went public at $85 per share on August 19, 2004, and the stock is now up 582% versus a 59% gain for the Nasdaq /quotes/zigman/123127 COMP +0.07% .
A lot of people credit the Google IPO with putting the sizzle back in technology investing after the dot-com bust blew a major hole in investor confidence.
What will Facebook's ticker be?
As markets await Facebook's IPO, many are trying to guess what Facebook's ticker might be. A few obvious choices are already taken, David Benoit reports on digits. Photo: Getty Images.
There's hope that Facebook could do the same today, given the high number of tech stocks trading at cheap valuations.
The poster boy of this crew is Apple Inc. /quotes/zigman/68270/quotes/nls/aapl AAPL +0.77% , which is trading at about 11 times forward earnings despite its sky-high revenue and earnings growth, and unparalleled level of innovation. See Minyanville's "Apple Earnings: Outstanding Achievement in the Field of Excellence."
However, I'm going to have to play Negative Nancy and throw water on the idea of a Facebook IPO kicking off a new tech bull market.
Let's remember, we are in a drastically different environment than in 2004.
When Google filed for its IPO on April 30, 2004, the Nasdaq closed at 1,920.15. This was 679 days after, and 73% above, the Oct. 10, 2002, low in the Nasdaq, which represented the worst of times after the dot-com bubble exploded.
Today, we stand 1,058 days and 122% from the March 9, 2009, low in the Nasdaq, which was the absolute low point following the destruction of the housing market.
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