Eastleigh by-election reaction - as it happened - Telegraph.co.uk

14.10 This was the scene in Eastleigh this morning when Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister, and winning candidate Mike Thornton spoke to Lib Dem activists.

13.46 Lord Ashcroft has published some very interesting polling of people who voted in Eastleigh yesterday. It shows that many of those who voted Ukip or the Lib Dems could still vote Tory in the 2015 general election.

13.06 Lord Tebbit, the former Conservative Cabinet minister, has written a blog for the Telegraph in which he says that the obvious lesson for David Cameron "is that if a party leader kicks his own supporters often enough they will kick back".

13.00 Labour's John Denham, who ran the party's Eastleigh campaign, has posted a series of tweets about the by-election result. Despite coming fourth in the vote Mr Denham, who is Ed Miliband's PPS, said that it "bodes wll for target seats where Labour [is] well organised and [the] Lib Dem vote [is] soft".

12.47 Anna Soubry, a Tory health minister, has praised the "cracking campaign" run by the Lib Dems on the BBC's Daily Politics programme.

The Lib Dems, especially in a seat like this where they've been entrenched for many years, they've run a cracking campaign. They started off with, I think, almost every borough councillor and I know from my own experience the huge power that that gives you when you've got that entrenchment in your community and I know because I've fought marginal seats. You need that when you're up in a marginal seat.

12.30 Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, told the BBC's Daily Politics programme that Ukip "will cause an earthquake" in British politics in the coming years. Asked what he drank to celebrate Mr Farage replied: "Sadly not enough... I intend after this interview to go and catch up."

12.13 Labour candidate John O'Farrell tweeted that it "was Ukip's night".

12.07 Douglas Carswell, a regular Tory rebel, has hit out at the Conservative leadership on the BBC and questioned why the party was on a "long march of defeat".
There are some policy lessons to be drawn. Oddly enough, I have to say I don't think Europe is the issue. I think we have got the right policy on Europe. When it comes to Europe I think our problem was that, having not talked about Europe for a long period of time and made a brilliant speech two weeks ago, that on its own wasn't enough.
There are other policy areas where we need to see some change. I would like us to do far more to focus on the bread and butter issue of cost of living. I think living standards are declining.
We talk about only a protest vote, one of the reasons why people feel inclined to protest is because they are hurting in their pocket.
What is it that's happened that's allowed us to go on this long retreat, this long march of defeat?

12.00 Paul Goodman, the executive editor of the ConservativeHome website, tweets that Tory MPs are saying that George Osborne, the Chancellor, is the party's "biggest problem".

11.56 The BBC's chief political correspondent Norman Smith has tracked down Mike Thornton in Eastleigh. He said Mr Thornton was ignored by the press when he arrived in the town centre, apparently looking for a new shaver head for his razor.

11.47 A picture from the count of Mike Thornton, the Lib Dem candidate, being contratulated by a member of the Monster Raving Loony Party.

11.41 Michael Fallon, a business minister, has told BBC News that the Ukip performance in Eastleigh is nothing more than a protest vote.

We're in government, we're not the protest party, protest parties always do well at by-elections, both the governing parties in the Coalition, ourselves and the Liberal Democrats, our vote went down almost the same, went down about 14 per cent, but this was a Liberal Democrat seat before the by-election, and it continues to be a Liberal Democrat seat, so I don't think there's anything really surprising here.
That's a protest vote in the middle of a difficult parliament, where the government is taking some pretty tough decisions. Look at the message itself... immigration we had some good figures yesterday that immigration figures are actually coming down now, we had good unemployment figures earlier on. Slowly but surely the economy is healing, we're getting the deficit under control.
These are big things we need to do to get our country right again, and I think you'll find at the general election that when it comes to voters to who should be the next government for the next five years, you'll get a rather different reaction than you get in a mid-term by-election.

11.36 Sarah Newton, deputy chairman of the Conservative Party, has told BBC News: "Actually, it's good for the Coalition that the Coalition has kept a seat despite all the difficulties facing the Liberal Democrats and the Coalition."

11.13 David Cameron vows to win back the voters he's lost:

10.53 The Telegraph's video desk has put together this footage of Nick Clegg hailing a "stunning" victory for the Lib Dems

10.51 Ed Miliband's full quote on his party's fourth-place finish in the by-election:

Clearly I would have preferred to have got more votes than we did, but this was always going to be a tough fight for Labour - it's a seat that we've never won.
It convinces me that we need to redouble our efforts to reach out to every part of the country, including areas where Labour hasn't traditionally been strong.
This was a disastrous night for the Conservatives and David Cameron. What we want to hear from the Prime Minister is a recognition that people are deeply unhappy with the direction of the country and he's going to listen."

10.47 Nick Clegg and Mike Thornton this morning. Mr Clegg said the Tory result in the election was "very poor".

10.44 Mike Thornton's sboss, Shaun Murphy, Director of Portal Tax Claims, has this to say about the Lib Dem winner:

I'm losing a great staff member but the Lib Dems are gaining a true business champion.The Lib Dems now have a top tax specialist in their midst and the opposition face a tough challenger the next time there's a debate on tax in the House.
He's coming straight from the coalface and following a very successful career helping hundreds of businesses secure millions in tax rebates.

We're sorry to lose him but no doubt the tax man will take a different view on seeing the back of a sharp opponent. The question on everyone's lips in the tax world is, 'Will Mike use his maiden speech in Parliament to bang the drum for capital allowances?' Mike has been a great advocate for this overlooked, complicated but very necessary tax break for business and we hope to see him continue to fight the good fight in Parliament.

10.40 David Cameron's vow not to lurch further to the right to combat the threat from Ukip are significant. Here they are in full:

It's disappointing for the Conservative Party but we must remain true to our principles, true to our course, and that way we can win people back.
I don't think we should tack this way, tack that way. What we have got to do is deliver for people who work hard, who want to get on, and deliver on the agenda that they care about and I care about.
That means getting our economy moving, it means continuing to reduce our deficit, it means continuing to cut immigration, it means continuing to reform welfare, it means delivering for people who work hard, who want to get on, who want to do the right thing for their families.
That is my agenda, that is their agenda. This is a by-election, it's mid-term, it's a protest. That's what happens in by-elections."

10.37 Here is a video of David Cameron talking about the Eastleigh result:

10.34 Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, has played down his disappointment at his party's poor showing in Eastleigh. He said the party will no "redouble" its efforts, but added that the result is "disastrous" for David Cameron.

10.10 Winning candidate Mike Thornton has said that the victory shows that Lib Dem "policies are right for ordinary people".

10.07 Mr Cameron has dismissed any suggestions of a move to the right in an attempt to combat the threat from Ukip. "We must remain true to our principles, true to our course," he said.

10.05 David Cameron has been reacting to the result. "It is clear that in mid-tern by-elections people want to register a protest but I'm confident that at the general election we can win those people back," Mr Cameron said.

10.00 Despite the victory for the Lib Dems, this will be seen by many as Nigel Farage's day.

09.55 Zac Goldsmith, the rebellious Tory MP, has tweeted that the Eastleigh result shows that people now believe that political parties lack authenticity.

09.50 Another image from the count. Ukip candidate Diane James pumps her fist after the results are announced.

09.45 Prime Minister David Cameron said today that the Eastleigh by-election result was "disappointing" but that he was "confident" that the Conservatives could win back support at the general election.

09.42 Here is another picture from the Eastleigh count. Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, looks overjoyed after Diane James comes second in the vote.

09.40 Rowena Mason, the Telegraph's Political Correspondent, has been in Eastleigh where she saw Nick Clegg and Mike Thornton make a brief victory speech this morning. Mr Clegg was not in the mood to answer any questions on the Lord Rennard affair. She writes:

Nick Clegg wasnt in the mood for answering questions this morning even though his party has just pulled off a "stunning" by-election victory. After a brief speech at a cricket ground just outside Eastleigh, he was ushered upstairs by aides - ignoring a mob of cameras and reporters. "When are you going to come clean about the Rennard scandal?" one yelled. Mr Clegg just smiled and hurried on.

09.34 Maria Hutchings, the Tory candidate, reacts after the result was announced in the early hours.

09.30 John O'Farrell, Labour's unsuccessful candidate has just tweeted the following:

9.16 Oliver Wright, from the Independent, tweets that Nick Clegg relished the moment in his speech where he referred to the Tory party's "very poor showing" in the election:

09.14 Mr Clegg leaves the stage without answering questions from any of the "self-appointed detectives" from the media.

09.13 Mike Thornton starts by saying he "is not sure" he is "awake enough to make a coherent speech".

09.12 Mr Clegg: "We can be a party of government and still win."

09.11 Mr Clegg takes a swipe at David Cameron. He says he'll leave it to the Conservative Party to "explain their very poor" resultsin Eastleigh.

09.11 Mr Clegg says "this is an election we had to fight in extremely difficult circumstances". He says "we overcame the odds and won a stunning victory".

09.10 Mr Clegg starts by giving "a heartfelt thanks to the people of Eastleigh". He says Mike Thornton will be an "outstanding" MP.

09.08 The Deputy Prime Minister is just about to speak in Eastleigh alongside Mike Thornton, the newest Lib Dem MP.

08.51 Michael Gove, the Education Secretary, made some very interesting remarks during his appearance on BBC Radio 4's Today programme. He said the anti-politics vote had drawn people to Ukip. He singled out the Mid Staffs scandal as a reason for people turing away from British politics.

I think there are two aspects to it. I think on the first it is the case that there is a greater sense of disengagement from conventional politics now than there's been certainly in my adult lifetime. The 'none of the above, you're all the same' vote, is stronger. I think its part of a broader distaste for elites. People believe that elites have failed, everything from the expenses scandal, to what's gone on in banking, to the recent revelations of what's gone on in mid-Staffordshire, means there's a sense there that the establishment, however you describe it or however constituted, has let folk down. That's powerful.

08.46 Michael Deacon, the Telegraph's sketch writer is in Eastleigh waiting for Nick Clegg to make a speech. The Lib Dem leader is late:

08.41 Tim Farron, on BBC radio, has described Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, as a "less successful version of George Galloway". Fighting talk from the Lib Dem president. Expect Mr Farage to hit back shortly.

08.34 James Kirkup, the Telegraph's Deputy Political Editor has written a blog on the Eastleigh result.

08.25 Benedict Brogan, the Deputy Editor of The Telegraph has written that Ukip are "the new Lib Dems" and that Conservatives will this morning be calling for David Cameron to combat the threat from Nigel Farage's party by being tougher on Europe.

As Nigel Farage points out, there's a long way to go to the general election. He must also acknowledge that the Ukip vote is, in part, shaped by protest, a "plague on all your houses" mood that is gripping voters and benefiting the party. They are the new Lib Dems,the repository of our frustrations with the parties of power. Tory high command is clinging on to that explanation to avoid confronting some painful truths. The issues Conservatives will be considering this morning will include complaints about their organisation - the knives are being sharpened for Sayeeda Warsi by those who want to avoid blaming Grant Shapps. Expect calls for Lynton Crosby to be given greater powers. Tories might also conclude that David Cameron's Europespeech has made no difference at all, and the policy needs tightening with a referendum sooner than he proposes.

08.22 Tim Farron, the Lib Dem president, has accused newspapers of trying to "influence the outcome" of the by-election by exposing details of the allegations made against Lord Rennard. It comes after Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister, received huge criticism for attacking the "self-appointed detectives" in the media investigating the scandal.

08.20 Here is another video, this time of Ukip leader Nigel Farage's reaction to his party's second place finish:

08.14 Tim Farron, the Lib Dem president, has told the BBC that this victory is "absolutely massive" for his party. He said that to have won despite the Lord Rennard scandal and the resignation of Chris Huhne shows that the party is still strong. He said that all the people who have written the Lib Dems off now "have egg on their face".

08.10 Nigel Farage is being asked again and again why he did not stand as the Ukip candidate in Eastleigh. He could have pushed Mike Thornton, the Lib Dem winner, very, very close. This could well come back to haunt Mr Farage if the party fails to win any seats at the next general election.

08.09 Tory MP Therese Coffey tweets that we can expect to hear from Diane James, the Ukip candidate, again in the future.

08.07 Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister, should be making an appearance in Eastleigh in the next 30 minutes. He will be relieved and hoping this victory gives him some much-needed respite from the continuing Lord Rennard scandal.

08.05 Here is some footage from The Telegraph's video desk of Maria Hutchings' extraordinary reaction when facing reporters after her loss in the by-election

08.03 Influential Tory backbencher Douglas Carswell with an understated take on Tory gloom in the wake of the Tories Eastleigh disaster:

08.00 Ukip leader Nigel Farage, with barely-restrained glee, has been doing a round of interviews. He has said that the Conservatives were pushed into third place because they have David Cameron as their leader. Mr Farage called the Prime Minister a "conman" and said he would never do a deal with the Tories as long as Mr Cameron remains leader.

07.55 Tory MP Claire Perry expresses her sadness for Maria Hutchings, the defeated Conservative candidate.

07.49 On ITV's Daybreak, Mr Gove has admitted that people voted for Ukip as a "protest". He said: "There were people from the Liberal Democrat ranks, and Conservatives, who were voting Ukip because they wanted to register a sense of pain and frustration at a difficult time for the country."

The "scandals and the allegations" facing the Lib Dems over Lord Rennard "had nothing to do with the result", he added.

07.43 Michael Gove, the Education Secretary, has been on the BBC and told how the Eastleigh result has made him "sad". Mr Gove said that Ukip were able to "capture a sense of protest and unhapiness".

I'm not humiliated, I'm not going to say that. I'm just sad. I'm not going to try and say it's a good result.
It's important to analyse what happened. You'll see in by-elections…parties that are well placed to capture a sense of protest and unhappiness.
A while ago George Galloway won the Bradford West by-election against every expectation. He's a strong, charismatic figure who was well placed to capture a sense of disquiet and unease at a difficult time for the country and Europe.
It's the same with Ukip. Nigel Farage is an effective campaigner and Ukip were the obvious protest vehicle.
Broadly the same number of folk defected from the Lib Dem camp to vote for Ukip as moved from the Tory camp to vote for Ukip.

07.35 The Telegraph's Political Editor Robert Winnett reports the by-election result leaves the Tories at a crossroads.

For Conservative strategists, last night's result is a major headache. Publicly, we will hear lots of talk of Ukip being a protest vote and that voters will return to the Tory fold come the next election. But, behind the scenes, the result is shocking to the party's strategists.

Mr Cameron now has to make a major decision. Is the future of political success still in the centre ground? Does he continue to chase the Liberal Democrat vote and those who would previously have voted for Tony Blair? Does he continue to rebrand the Conservatives with more touchy-feely policies to help young families, the environment and the world's poor.

Or, has the established political consensus of recent years changed. Are British voters, like their Italian counterparts, looking for something new, something unlike politics in the past. Is the anti-political mood now holding the balance.

07.25 Good morning and welcome to The Telegraph's live coverage of reaction to the Eastleigh by-election contest.

Here's a quick reminder of what happened last night in Eastleigh:

Mike Thornton took 13,342 votes for the Lib Dems, 32 per cent of the total.

Diane James of Ukip took 11,571 votes, or 27.8 per cent.

Maria Hutchings, the Conservative candidate got 10,559 votes, or 25.4 per cent.

Labour's John O'Farrell came a distant fourth with 4,088 votes, unchanged from the last general election.